SmartStops thoughts:    A good behavioral investment blogger wrote:  “The conviction that we express in any investment view reflects our expectations around the likelihood of certain outcomes. We are constantly making judgements that are founded on our subjective belief about probabilities and our confidence in the available evidence. Despite this we seem unwilling to talk in these terms. Instead, there is a tendency to frame investment positions in a definitive fashion – I believe X will happen because of Y. The absence of nuance entirely belies both our own fallibility and the sheer uncertainty of the environment in which we operate. Ignoring these factors not only impacts the type and size of risks we take, but materially inhibits our ability to change our mind and learn from past decisions source:.  Can read more at: